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Replacing a player who posts a WP48 beyond 0.300 is difficult because these players are very scarce. In other words, neither player is exactly LeBron James (who has a WP48 mark in excess of 0.300). When we put the entire picture together we see that although Anthony scores more points, each player has similar WP48 marks in 2010-11. But Gay is a more efficient scorer from the field.
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Yes, Anthony gets more rebounds and takes more trips to the free throw line. And his overall contribution compares favorably to Melo. This season, though, Gay is above average. In fact, he had never been above average before the 2010-11 (and still - as I think I mentioned - the Grizzlies agreed to give him more than $80 million). Gay – again, as a small forward – was actually a bit below average last season. Carmelo Anthony – as a small forward –exceeded this threshold last season and so far in 2010-11. Once again, an average player posts a WP48 of 0.100. Yes, Rudy Gay is as good as one of the greatest players in the game (or so I have heard). In fact, as the following table indicates, in 2010-11 he has been as productive as Carmelo Anthony. When we move beyond scoring – and consider all the factors in the box score – we can see that Gay actually improved from 2009-10 to the current season. And that means, player evaluation has to move beyond points per game. In other words – as has been noted before – shots are something teams can easily replace. This is why the Grizzlies –with and without Gay – take about the same number of field goal attempts per game. And who are they taking their shots from? Of course, shots are taken from their teammates.
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In terms of efficiency differential, the team has actually improved a bit ( Zach Lowe at SI.com has also noted that Memphis hasn’t struggled as much as expected without Gay ).Īnd all those shots that Gay “creates”? As we see in the data, players don’t really “create” shots. The team’s record without Gay has been 9-6. Here is what Memphis had done in the past 15 games (with Gay watching): And that leads one to wonder… how have the Memphis Grizzlies done without the player the team had to pay more than $80 million (because he was so difficult to replace)? And now we hear he is missing the rest of the season.